There’s a belief floating around endurance sports circles that your Functional Threshold Power (FTP) should be at its lowest in January if you want to improve throughout the year. While this idea has some truth, it oversimplifies a much more nuanced concept. Let’s break it down and discuss why blindly following this advice could lead to missed opportunities in your training.
What’s the Logic Behind This Idea?
The reasoning behind the statement is that athletes should follow a periodized training plan that includes an off-season or lower-intensity training phase. This phase allows the body to recover from a long season, preventing burnout and injury while setting the stage for future gains. Since FTP is a measure of your sustainable power output, some reduction during the off-season is natural if intensity and volume decrease.
However, stating that your FTP “should” be at its lowest in January is misleading. Fitness is dynamic, and training should be structured based on an athlete’s individual goals, seasonal race schedule, and overall periodization—not a blanket statement.
What If You’re Training for a Winter Event?
If you’re targeting a winter race—whether it’s a cycling time trial, a marathon, or a triathlon—your FTP should NOT be at its lowest. Instead, your training plan should have built toward a peak at the right time, meaning your FTP is likely at one of its highest points leading into race day.
Athletes who race early in the year structure their training differently than those aiming for peak performance in the summer or fall. If you’re preparing for a key event in January or February, your FTP should be near its best to match the demands of competition.
The Role of Periodization in FTP Changes
Periodization divides training into cycles that prioritize different aspects of fitness. Here’s how FTP typically fluctuates throughout the year:
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Off-Season (Post-Race Recovery): Training volume and intensity decrease, allowing for recovery. FTP may decline slightly, but this is normal and beneficial.
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Base Phase (Building Aerobic Fitness): Athletes focus on endurance, strength, and efficiency. FTP may stabilize or improve gradually.
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Build Phase (Threshold and VO2 Max Development): More race-specific training increases FTP, making it one of the highest points of the year.
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Peak & Race Phase: FTP may hold steady or slightly decline while anaerobic power and race-day sharpness take priority.
For athletes peaking in spring or summer, FTP might be lower in January due to the early base phase. But for those racing in January or February, FTP should already be high.
Should You Intentionally Lower Your FTP?
No! While a slight drop in FTP during the off-season is natural, you should not actively try to reduce it. Instead, focus on a structured plan that:
✅ Prioritizes recovery after peak racing blocks
✅ Builds strength and aerobic endurance in the off-season
✅ Incorporates intensity at the right time to develop FTP when needed
✅ Aligns with your personal racing schedule and performance goals
The Bottom Line
Your FTP shouldn’t be at its lowest in January unless it aligns with your training cycle. Athletes preparing for early-season races should be peaking, while those targeting mid-to-late-year events may be in an endurance-building phase. The key takeaway? Train with intention, follow a structured plan, and don’t force fitness losses that aren’t necessary.
By understanding how FTP fits into your annual training progression, you’ll set yourself up for smarter, more sustainable performance gains throughout the year.